A Once in 50 years Incident?

It seems to me that quite a number of people do not understand what probability means in the recent flood. Due to the very successful flood alleviation programme instituted by the Public Utilities Board of Singapore, the flood areas in Singapore have been reduced drastically over the years so that the public in Singapore has become accustomed to flood free situation despite living on a low lying, increasingly built up tropical island. However, in the last month, there have been flash floods on three occasions in low-lying areas of Singapore including the famed Orchard Road, around the Scotts Road junction.

Horror of horrors, are we living in *third world* country?

The reaction of the public would be amusing if it did not betray such innocence of probability let alone other physical and economic factors. When the public is told, this is a "Once in 50 years event" what they do not seem to recognise is that this is a probability. In other words, there is a one in 50 chance of such a flood occurring in the same way that if one flips a coin, there is a 50% chance it can turn up heads but it could easily be flipped 100 times and still be heads all times and that still does not change the truth of the original statement that there is a 50% chance of it being heads although of course that is certainly a rare series of events.

As a bunch of engineers, generally excellent at what they do, PUB engineers forget that the general level of understanding of simple probability, let alone an understanding of engineering, rainfall, tides, permeable versus impermeable surfaces and a low lying island, is sorely lacking. So perhaps what is needed in this case is for engineers to improve their ability to communicate with the public in simpler terms. Idiot-proof explanations are needed and any comments relating to probability should be avoided.

Good luck engineers and don't forget you can always hire a spin doctor but make sure your spin doctor understands some rudimentary engineering and probability and has a good dose of common sense.

An Ode to the Christmas Crib

My attempt at reviving my poetry writing exercises for practice. A Pindaric Ode anyone?

A mother young, a mother poor

Rushing round with husband dear.

For contractions came too soon for home

The star - kissed night draws clear.

Poor husband's fraught and strained

And then at last, a crack of hope

A manger, straw, ox. Now we can cope.

Cash registers ring. The date draws near.

Shoppers pile up gifts for kith and kin dear.

The turkey roasted fat. The drinks foam.

All it seems is cheer. Trees glitter, children roam.

Excess rules the day. The side show becomes the main

Event. We all join in the refrain

Of winter wonderland while places we "chope"

In the Christmas show down Orchard Road.

Has the child been forgotten in the fear

Of being alone? And Silent Night turned rowdy cheer?

And why are there, in tropical heat, foam

flecked reindeer frozen outside a mall on a dome?

Even for those who choose to drain

Belief from their lives, still acclaim

Christmas. The hope that fights the nope

Of modernist thought. And for that magic they grope.

Note: "chope" means to reserve. Translated from the Singlish to English. Orchard Road is the glittering main shopping street in Singapore.